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CMS-PAS-TAU-25-001
A machine-learning method for the estimation of the background from jets misidentified as hadronic tau lepton decays
Abstract: Backgrounds arising from quark- and gluon-initiated jets misidentified as hadronically decaying tau leptons constitute a major experimental challenge for analyses involving tau leptons. The MUFFIN (MUltivariate Fake-Factor INference) approach, a machine-learning-based method for estimating this background directly from data, is presented. Boosted decision tree reweighting is used to learn multidimensional, per-object correction factors directly from data, thereby modelling the jet to hadronic tau lepton misidentification probability across the phase space without relying on low-dimensional parametrisations. Performance studies are presented using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC at $ \sqrt{s}= $ 13.6 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 62.4 fb$ ^{-1} $. Compared to low-dimensional parametrisation methods, improved modelling of key kinematic observables is achieved, particularly in regions of high transverse momentum. The improved modelling leads to a reduction of up to 70% in the systematic uncertainty associated with jets being misidentified as hadronically decaying tau leptons. The MUFFIN method provides a robust and scalable method to background estimation in precision measurements and searches for beyond the standard model physics involving tau lepton final states.
Figures & Tables Summary References CMS Publications
Figures

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Figure 1:
Schematic overview of the determination regions (DR), validation regions (VR), application region (AR), and signal region (SR) used in the estimation of the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ backgrounds. For each process, transfer factors are derived in dedicated DRs enriched in jets misidentified as $ \tau_h $ candidates. The performance of the method is assessed in VRs, where available, or through simulation-based studies in cases without an unbiased DR. The prediction is then applied in a common AR, defined by opposite-sign events with one $ \tau_h $ candidate failing the nominal identification requirement. In the $ \tau_h\tau_h $ channel, the AR is dominated by QCD multijet events, while in the $ \tau_\ell\tau_h $ channels a combined prediction is constructed from QCD multijet, $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $, and $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ contributions using relative fractions derived in the AR. The final estimate is obtained in the SR, defined by opposite-sign isolated events passing the nominal $ \tau_h $ identification requirements.

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Figure 2:
Schematic overview of the hyperparameter optimisation procedure used to configure the BDT models. For each trial, Optuna proposes a hyperparameter set, the model is trained with early stopping, and the validation loss is used as the optimisation objective.

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Figure 3:
Log-scale representation of the loss versus boosting iteration for all BDT models in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channels. Solid (dashed) lines correspond to the training (validation) loss, while cross markers indicate the early-stopping iteration.

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Figure 4:
Reliability diagram for the QCD multijet BDT in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel after temperature scaling ($ T^\ast = $ 0.999) evaluated on the validation dataset. Points show the empirical accuracy in each confidence bin, defined as the event-weight-averaged fraction of correctly classified events, with Wilson score 68% confidence intervals computed using the effective sample size $ n_\text{eff} = (\sum_i w_i)^2 / \sum_i w_i^2 $. The dashed diagonal line indicates perfect calibration. The shaded histogram (right axis) shows the distribution of confidence scores, normalised to the total event weight per bin. The model is well-calibrated across the full confidence range, with the bulk of events ($ > 30% $ per bin) concentrated at high confidence values ($ > $ 0.8).

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Figure 5:
Distributions of representative observables in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region comparing the MUFFIN prediction (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ estimate (red, dashed) to the target distribution (black markers) for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and decay mode. The ratio panels display the target-to-prediction ratio, with the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values quoted in each panel. Arrows indicate bins outside the plotted range. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) of each mass and $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ distribution.

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Figure 5-a:
Distributions of representative observables in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region comparing the MUFFIN prediction (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ estimate (red, dashed) to the target distribution (black markers) for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and decay mode. The ratio panels display the target-to-prediction ratio, with the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values quoted in each panel. Arrows indicate bins outside the plotted range. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) of each mass and $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ distribution.

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Figure 5-b:
Distributions of representative observables in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region comparing the MUFFIN prediction (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ estimate (red, dashed) to the target distribution (black markers) for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and decay mode. The ratio panels display the target-to-prediction ratio, with the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values quoted in each panel. Arrows indicate bins outside the plotted range. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) of each mass and $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ distribution.

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Figure 5-c:
Distributions of representative observables in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region comparing the MUFFIN prediction (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ estimate (red, dashed) to the target distribution (black markers) for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and decay mode. The ratio panels display the target-to-prediction ratio, with the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values quoted in each panel. Arrows indicate bins outside the plotted range. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) of each mass and $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ distribution.

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Figure 5-d:
Distributions of representative observables in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region comparing the MUFFIN prediction (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ estimate (red, dashed) to the target distribution (black markers) for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and decay mode. The ratio panels display the target-to-prediction ratio, with the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values quoted in each panel. Arrows indicate bins outside the plotted range. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) of each mass and $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ distribution.

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Figure 6:
Comparison of the visible mass $ m_{\mathrm{vis}} $ and $ \eta $ distributions in the same $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region with the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions. The ratio panels highlight residual deviations and the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ metric values. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 6-a:
Comparison of the visible mass $ m_{\mathrm{vis}} $ and $ \eta $ distributions in the same $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region with the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions. The ratio panels highlight residual deviations and the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ metric values. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 6-b:
Comparison of the visible mass $ m_{\mathrm{vis}} $ and $ \eta $ distributions in the same $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ application region with the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions. The ratio panels highlight residual deviations and the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ metric values. Overflow contributions are included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 7:
Validation of the QCD multijet background modelling in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ validation region. Predictions from MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) are compared to data for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio, with $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values indicating the overall level of agreement. Overflow events are included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

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Figure 7-a:
Validation of the QCD multijet background modelling in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ validation region. Predictions from MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) are compared to data for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio, with $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values indicating the overall level of agreement. Overflow events are included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

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Figure 7-b:
Validation of the QCD multijet background modelling in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ validation region. Predictions from MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) are compared to data for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio, with $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values indicating the overall level of agreement. Overflow events are included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

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Figure 7-c:
Validation of the QCD multijet background modelling in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ validation region. Predictions from MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) are compared to data for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio, with $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values indicating the overall level of agreement. Overflow events are included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

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Figure 7-d:
Validation of the QCD multijet background modelling in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ validation region. Predictions from MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) are compared to data for $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio, with $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values indicating the overall level of agreement. Overflow events are included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

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Figure 8:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode in the $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ determination region of the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel, showing MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed). The ratio panels report the $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values for each method; arrows mark bins outside the plotted range; overflow is included in the last bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 8-a:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode in the $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ determination region of the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel, showing MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed). The ratio panels report the $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values for each method; arrows mark bins outside the plotted range; overflow is included in the last bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 8-b:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode in the $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ determination region of the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel, showing MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed). The ratio panels report the $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values for each method; arrows mark bins outside the plotted range; overflow is included in the last bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 8-c:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode in the $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ determination region of the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel, showing MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed). The ratio panels report the $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values for each method; arrows mark bins outside the plotted range; overflow is included in the last bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 8-d:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode in the $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ determination region of the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel, showing MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed). The ratio panels report the $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values for each method; arrows mark bins outside the plotted range; overflow is included in the last bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 9:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) using simulated $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ events. Ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 9-a:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) using simulated $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ events. Ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 9-b:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) using simulated $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ events. Ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 9-c:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) using simulated $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ events. Ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 9-d:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) using simulated $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ events. Ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 10:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) in simulated $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ for the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. The ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 10-a:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) in simulated $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ for the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. The ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 10-b:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) in simulated $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ for the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. The ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 10-c:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) in simulated $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ for the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. The ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 10-d:
Comparison of $ p_{\mathrm{T}}^{\tau_\mathrm{h}} $, $ m_{\mathrm{T}}^{\text{total}} $, $ \Delta R $, and $ \tau_\mathrm{h} $ decay mode for MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) in simulated $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ for the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. The ratio panels show agreement with respect to the simulated target and report the corresponding $ \langle|z|\rangle $ values. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $) where applicable.

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Figure 11:
Distributions of the visible mass in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (left) and the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (right) in the SRs, as defined in Section 5, of physics analyses targeting Higgs boson decays to $ \tau $ lepton pairs. The MUFFIN method is used to estimate the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background contributions. The lower panels show the ratio of data to the total background prediction, with shaded bands representing the combined statistical and systematic uncertainties from the MUFFIN method.

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Figure 11-a:
Distributions of the visible mass in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (left) and the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (right) in the SRs, as defined in Section 5, of physics analyses targeting Higgs boson decays to $ \tau $ lepton pairs. The MUFFIN method is used to estimate the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background contributions. The lower panels show the ratio of data to the total background prediction, with shaded bands representing the combined statistical and systematic uncertainties from the MUFFIN method.

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Figure 11-b:
Distributions of the visible mass in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (left) and the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel (right) in the SRs, as defined in Section 5, of physics analyses targeting Higgs boson decays to $ \tau $ lepton pairs. The MUFFIN method is used to estimate the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background contributions. The lower panels show the ratio of data to the total background prediction, with shaded bands representing the combined statistical and systematic uncertainties from the MUFFIN method.

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Figure 12:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-a:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-b:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-c:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-d:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-e:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 12-f:
BDT-score validation in a $ H(125)\to\tau\tau CP $ validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-a:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-b:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-c:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-d:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-e:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 13-f:
BDT-score validation in a $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $-enriched validation region in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel for the Higgs-enriched, $ \tau $-enriched, and jet-misidentification-enriched categories. MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red, dashed) predictions are compared at the distribution level (left) and through the corresponding non-closure evaluation (right).

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Figure 14:
STXS-inspired category-by-category yield closure for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (top) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (bottom) validation region. Points show the ratio of observed to predicted yields per STXS category (non-closure), for the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red) methods, where deviations from unity are interpreted as systematic uncertainties in the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background estimate. The right panel shows the total uncertainty per category, with the hatched grey bars indicating the statistical component. Only statistical uncertainties are shown; the observed non-closure along with the statistical uncertainty define the systematic uncertainty that would be assigned in a real analysis. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved per-category agreement, particularly in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ and multi-jet categories.

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Figure 14-a:
STXS-inspired category-by-category yield closure for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (top) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (bottom) validation region. Points show the ratio of observed to predicted yields per STXS category (non-closure), for the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red) methods, where deviations from unity are interpreted as systematic uncertainties in the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background estimate. The right panel shows the total uncertainty per category, with the hatched grey bars indicating the statistical component. Only statistical uncertainties are shown; the observed non-closure along with the statistical uncertainty define the systematic uncertainty that would be assigned in a real analysis. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved per-category agreement, particularly in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ and multi-jet categories.

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Figure 14-b:
STXS-inspired category-by-category yield closure for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (top) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ (bottom) validation region. Points show the ratio of observed to predicted yields per STXS category (non-closure), for the MUFFIN (blue) and $ F_{\text{F}} $ (red) methods, where deviations from unity are interpreted as systematic uncertainties in the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background estimate. The right panel shows the total uncertainty per category, with the hatched grey bars indicating the statistical component. Only statistical uncertainties are shown; the observed non-closure along with the statistical uncertainty define the systematic uncertainty that would be assigned in a real analysis. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved per-category agreement, particularly in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ and multi-jet categories.

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Figure 15:
Closure in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ tails of the kinematic distributions for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ QCD multijet-dominated (left) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ (right) validation regions. The dashed lines indicate the statistical component of the uncertainty. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved agreement in both tails, leading to substantially reduced systematic uncertainties for the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel and moderate improvements in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

png pdf
Figure 15-a:
Closure in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ tails of the kinematic distributions for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ QCD multijet-dominated (left) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ (right) validation regions. The dashed lines indicate the statistical component of the uncertainty. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved agreement in both tails, leading to substantially reduced systematic uncertainties for the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel and moderate improvements in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $).

png pdf
Figure 15-b:
Closure in the high-$ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ tails of the kinematic distributions for a $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ QCD multijet-dominated (left) and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ $ \mathrm{W}+\text{jets} $ (right) validation regions. The dashed lines indicate the statistical component of the uncertainty. The MUFFIN method achieves significantly improved agreement in both tails, leading to substantially reduced systematic uncertainties for the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel and moderate improvements in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channel. Overflow is included in the final bin ($ \infty $).
Tables

png pdf
Table 1:
Online trigger and offline selection requirements applied in the $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ and $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channels. All $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ values are given in GeVns. Online trigger thresholds are indicated in brackets.

png pdf
Table 2:
Offline selection requirements in the $ \tau_\mathrm{h}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ and $ \tau_\mathrm{\mu}\hspace{-.04em}\tau_\mathrm{h} $ channels. A dash indicates that the requirement is not applied in that channel.

png pdf
Table 3:
Total relative uncertainty in the $ \text{jet}\to\tau_\mathrm{h} $ background yield in representative inclusive SR selections for each channel.
Summary
In this note, a machine-learning-based alternative to the $F_F$ method for estimating backgrounds from jets misidentified as hadronically decaying $\tau$ leptons is presented, referred to as MUFFIN (MUltivariate Fake-Factor INference). This method is a generalisation of the previous $F-F$ method by replacing low-dimensional transfer factors with multidimensional, per-object reweighting functions learned directly from data, while preserving the fully data-driven nature of the background estimation. The method has been developed and validated using CMS Run~3 data (collected in 2022--2023) and is benchmarked against the $F-F$ method using a series of closure tests. Across the analysis channels and observables considered, the MUFFIN method has demonstrated improved or comparable modelling performance, increased stability in regions sensitive to correlations between multiple variables, and a reduced reliance on additional non-closure corrections. At the same time, the method has provided a more unified and reproducible workflow for background estimation. These results indicate that the MUFFIN method constitutes a robust and flexible alternative for future analyses involving hadronic $\tau$ leptons. As analyses increasingly exploit fine-grained categorisation and multidimensional phase space information, the method presented here provides a natural framework to improve background modelling precision and to enhance the sensitivity of measurements and searches involving hadronic $\tau$ final states. Looking forward, further improvement in the performance of the MUFFIN method is expected as larger datasets become available. The use of boosted decision trees allows the straightforward inclusion of additional input features, such as an explicit data-taking era label, enabling the model to capture era-dependent detector conditions, trigger configurations, and reconstruction performance in a unified training. Training on larger, combined datasets therefore offers a natural path to increasing statistical precision while maintaining robustness against changing experimental conditions, without requiring separate derivations or corrections for individual eras.
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