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| CMS-HIG-25-014 ; CERN-EP-2026-011 | ||
| Combination of ATLAS and CMS searches for Higgs boson pair production at $ \sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV | ||
| CMS Collaboration | ||
| 3 March 2026 | ||
| Submitted to Physical Review Letters | ||
| Abstract: This letter presents a combination of searches for Higgs boson pair (HH) production performed by the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations using proton--proton collision data sets recorded at $ \sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV at the LHC Run 2, corresponding to integrated luminosities ranging between 126 and 140 $ \mathrm{fb^{-1}} $. The upper limit at the 95% confidence level on the total HH production cross section corresponds to 2.5 times the standard model (SM) prediction with an expected value of 1.7 (2.8) assuming the absence (presence) of the SM HH signal. The strength of the HH signal is measured to be 0.8 $ ^{+0.9}_{-0.7} $ relative to the SM prediction. The observed significance is found to be 1.1 standard deviations when 1.3 are expected for the SM HH signal. Constraints are set on the Higgs boson trilinear self-coupling and on the couplings of two Higgs bosons to two vector bosons, both normalized to the SM predictions and denoted as $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\mathrm{V}} $, respectively. The observed individual constraints at the 95% confidence level are $ -0.71 < \kappa_\lambda < $ 6.1 and 0.73 $ < \kappa_{2\mathrm{V}} < $ 1.3, while the expected constraints assuming the presence of the SM HH signal are $ -1.3 < \kappa_\lambda < $ 6.7 and 0.66 $ < \kappa_{2\mathrm{V}} < $ 1.4. | ||
| Links: e-print arXiv:2602.23991 [hep-ex] (PDF) ; CDS record ; inSPIRE record ; HepData record ; CADI line (restricted) ; | ||
| Figures & Tables | Summary | Additional Figures & Tables | References | CMS Publications |
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| Figures | |
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Figure 1:
Expected and observed 95% CL upper limits on the total HH signal strength, defined as the ratio of the measured cross section to the sum of the ggF and VBF HH SM cross sections, for ATLAS, CMS, and the combined results from both experiments. The median expected limits on $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ are obtained under the hypotheses of no HH signal ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov}= $ 0) or assuming the presence of the SM HH signal ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov}= $ 1). The $ \pm 1\sigma $ and $ \pm 2\sigma $ bands are computed under the $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov}= $ 0 hypothesis. |
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Figure 2:
Expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as functions of $ \kappa_\lambda $ (left) and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ (right) for ATLAS, CMS, and the expected and observed values for the combined results from both experiments. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
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Figure 2-a:
Expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as functions of $ \kappa_\lambda $ (left) and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ (right) for ATLAS, CMS, and the expected and observed values for the combined results from both experiments. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
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Figure 2-b:
Expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as functions of $ \kappa_\lambda $ (left) and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ (right) for ATLAS, CMS, and the expected and observed values for the combined results from both experiments. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
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Figure 3:
Observed and expected 95% CL contours for the simultaneous scan of the profile likelihood as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $. The expected constraints from the individual experiments are also shown. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
| Tables | |
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Table 1:
Summary of the observed and expected results from the individual input analyses considered, the single experiment combination, and the LHC combination presented in this work. The upper limit on $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}=\sigma_{\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}}/\sigma_{\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}}^\text{SM} $ and the constraints on $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ are reported. All values quoted are defined at 95% CL. The expected limits on $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ are computed assuming the absence of HH signal. The references indicate the original publication where the corresponding analyses are documented, and the results were recomputed following the modifications to input analyses described in the text. |
| Summary |
| In summary, this Letter presents the first combination of ATLAS and CMS searches for Higgs boson pair (HH) production.The searches are performed using the LHC Run~2 data sets with integrated luminosities ranging between 126 and 140$ \mathrm{fb^{-1}}$.The upper limit at 95% CL on the total HH signal strength, defined as the ratio of the measured cross section to the SM prediction, corresponds to 2.5, with an expected value of 1.7 (2.8) in the absence (presence) of SM HH production. The best-fit of the signal strength is observed to be $0.8^{+0.9}_{-0.7}$, corresponding to an observed significance of 1.1 standard deviations, while the expected significance is 1.3 standard deviations. The observed 95% CL constraints on the $\kappa_\lambda$ and $\kappa_{2\mathrm{V}}$ coupling modifiers are $-0.71 < \kappa_\lambda < 6.1$ ($-1.3 < \kappa_\lambda < 6.7$ expected) and $0.73 < \kappa_{2\mathrm{V}} < 1.3$ ($0.66 < \kappa_{2\mathrm{V}} < 1.4$ expected). The combined results are compatible within their uncertainties with the SM predictions and represent the most comprehensive and most sensitive constraints on HH production to date. |
| Additional Figures | |
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Additional Figure 1:
Expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of the total signal strength parameter $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination. The observed value for the combination is also shown. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions, but the overall ggF+VBF HH signal normalization is allowed to vary freely. |
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Additional Figure 2:
Observed negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of the total signal strength parameter $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination. The expected value for the combination is also shown. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. but the overall ggF+VBF HH signal normalization is allowed to vary freely. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 3:
Observed and expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of the total signal strength parameter $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions, but the overall ggF+VBF HH signal normalization is allowed to vary freely. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 4:
Observed and expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 5:
Observed negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination, and expected value for the combination. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 6:
Observed and expected negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 7:
Observed negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination, and expected value for the combination. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 8:
Observed and expected 95% CL contours for the simultaneous scan of the profile likelihood as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 9:
Observed 95% CL contours for the simultaneous scan of the profile likelihood as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination. The expected constraints from the combination is also shown. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
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Additional Figure 10:
Exclusion limit at 95% CL on the total HH cross section as a function of the value of $ \kappa_\lambda $. The expected exclusion is computed assuming no HH signal is present ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov} = $ 0). The individual results by ATLAS and CMS are indicated by the green and purple lines, respectively. Dashed and solid lines denote respectively the expected median and the observed limits. The theoretical prediction, corresponding to the sum of the ggF and VBF HH cross sections, is shown in red. |
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Additional Figure 11:
Exclusion limit at 95% CL on the total HH cross section as a function of the value of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $. The expected exclusion is computed assuming no HH signal is present ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov} = $ 0). The individual results by ATLAS and CMS are indicated by the green and purple lines, respectively. Dashed and solid lines denote respectively the expected median and the observed limits. The theoretical prediction, corresponding to the sum of the ggF and VBF HH cross sections, is shown in red. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 12:
Expected and observed 95% CL upper limits on the total HH signal strength, defined as the ratio of the measured cross section to the sum of the ggF and VBF HH SM production cross sections, for ATLAS, CMS, and for the combined results from both experiments. The expected limits on $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ are obtained assuming the absence of an HH signal ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov}= $ 0). |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 13:
Expected and observed 95% CL upper limits on the total HH cross section, defined as the sum of the ggF and VBF HH SM production cross sections, for ATLAS, CMS, for the combined results from both experiments. The expected limits on $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H} $ are obtained assuming the absence of an HH signal ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{Asimov}= $ 0). The theoretical prediction is indicated in red. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 14:
Expected and observed 95% CL upper limits on the signal strength of the VBF HH production $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{VBF} $, defined as the ratio of the measured VBF HH cross section to the corresponding SM prediction, for ATLAS, CMS, and for the combined results from both experiments. The limits are obtained by fixing the ggF signal strength to the SM prediction ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{ggF} = $ 1). The expected limits assume the absence of the VBF HH signal. |
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Additional Figure 15:
Observed and expected 95% CL contours for the simultaneous scan of the profile likelihood as a function of the individual signal strengths for the ggF ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{ggF} $) and VBF ($ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{VBF} $) HH production modes for the combination of ATLAS and CMS. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. The likelihood function is not well defined in regions with large negative values of either $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{ggF} $ or $ \mu_\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}^\text{VBF} $, where the total prediction for the sum of signal and backgrounds can become negative in some categories of the input analyses. This region is therefore not shown. |
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Additional Figure 16-a:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 16-b:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 16-c:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 16-d:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_\lambda $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 17-a:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 17-b:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 17-c:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
png pdf |
Additional Figure 17-d:
Observed (top) and expected (bottom) negative log-likelihood ($ -2\ln\Lambda $) values as a function of $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for the input ATLAS (left) and CMS (right) analyses. All the other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to their SM predictions. |
| Additional Tables | |
png pdf |
Additional Table 1:
Best-fit values, 68%, and 95% CL intervals obtained from the likelihood values as a function of the coupling modifiers for the Higgs boson trilinear self-coupling $ \kappa_\lambda $ and the quartic coupling between two Higgs bosons and two vector bosons $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ for each of ATLAS, CMS, and their combination. Results for $ \kappa_\lambda $ and $ \kappa_{2\text{V}} $ are computed from independent fits where all the other Higgs boson couplings are set to their SM value. |
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