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CMS-TOP-23-005 ; CERN-EP-2024-258
Measurement of the inclusive $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ cross section in final states with at least one lepton and additional jets with 302 pb$^{-1}$ of pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}= $ 5.02 TeV
Submitted to J. High Energy Phys.
Abstract: A measurement of the top quark pair ($ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $) production cross section in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC in autumn 2017, in dedicated runs with low-energy and low-intensity conditions with respect to the default configuration, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 302 pb$^{-1}$. The measurement is performed using events with one electron or muon, and multiple jets, at least one of them being identified as b quark (b tagged). Events are classified based on the number of all reconstructed jets and of b-tagged jets. Multivariate analysis techniques are used to enhance the separation between the signal and backgrounds. The measured cross section is 62.5 $ \pm $ 1.6 (stat) $ {} ^{+2.6}_{-2.5} $ (syst) $ \pm $ 1.2 (lumi) pb. A combination with the result in the dilepton channel based on the same data set yields a value of 62.3 $ \pm $ 1.5 (stat) $ \pm $ 2.4 (syst) $ \pm $ 1.2 (lumi) pb, to be compared with the standard model prediction of 69.5 $ {}^{+3.5}_{-3.7} $ pb at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics.
Figures & Tables Summary References CMS Publications
Figures

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Figure 1:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the most discriminating input variables used for the random forest training, $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ (left) and $ m(\mathrm{u}\mathrm{u}') $(right), in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 1-a:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the most discriminating input variables used for the random forest training, $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ (left) and $ m(\mathrm{u}\mathrm{u}') $(right), in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 1-b:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the most discriminating input variables used for the random forest training, $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ (left) and $ m(\mathrm{u}\mathrm{u}') $(right), in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 2:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the MVA score for the e+jets (left) and $ \mu $+jets (right) channels in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 2-a:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the MVA score for the e+jets (left) and $ \mu $+jets (right) channels in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 2-b:
Distributions for data and expected signal and background contributions of the MVA score for the e+jets (left) and $ \mu $+jets (right) channels in the 3j1b category, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 3:
Observed and predicted number of events in each of the eight categories of the signal region, before the maximum likelihood fit. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty in the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the data-to-prediction ratio. The normalizations are taken with respect to the SM predictions except for QCD, which is estimated from data.

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Figure 4:
Distributions for the e+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}($\mathrm{j}$,\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 4-a:
Distributions for the e+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}($\mathrm{j}$,\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 4-b:
Distributions for the e+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}($\mathrm{j}$,\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 5:
Distributions for the $ \mu $+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 5-a:
Distributions for the $ \mu $+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 5-b:
Distributions for the $ \mu $+jets final state before (upper plot) and after (lower plot) the maximum likelihood fit: MVA score bins for the 3j1b category and $ \Delta R_\mathrm{med}(\mathrm{j},\mathrm{j}') $ bins for the other categories. The vertical error bars represent the statistical uncertainty in the data, and the shaded band the uncertainty of the prediction. All uncertainties considered in the analysis are included in the uncertainty band. The lower panels show the ratio of data to prediction or data to fit, respectively. The first and last bins in each distribution include underflow and overflow events, respectively.

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Figure 6:
The largest impacts on the signal strength, $ \Delta\hat{r} $ (right column) and ratios $ (\hat{\theta}-\theta_0)/\Delta\theta $ (middle column) for the nuisance parameters listed in the left column from the maximum likelihood fit used to determine the $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ cross section. The horizontal bars in the rightmost plot show the ratio of the uncertainties of the fit result to the pre-fit ones, effectively giving the constraint on the nuisance parameter. The JES uncertainties are divided into several sources, where ''JES-Flavour'' comes from the corrections applied to correct the different detector response to gluon and quark jets, and ''JES-RelJER'' accounts for the $ \eta $ dependence uncertainty from jet $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ resolution.

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Figure 7:
The largest impacts on the signal strength, $ \Delta\hat{r} $ (right column) and ratios $ (\hat{\theta}-\theta_{0})/\Delta\theta $ (middle column) for the nuisance parameters listed in the left column from the maximum likelihood fit in the combination with the dilepton result, used to determine the $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ cross section. The horizontal bars in the rightmost plot show the ratio of the uncertainties of the fit result to the pre-fit ones, effectively giving the constraint on the nuisance parameter. The JES uncertainties are divided into several sources, accounting for different effects, where ''JES-Flavour'' comes from the corrections applied to correct the different detector response to gluon and quark jets, and ''JES-RelJER'' accounts for the $ \eta $ dependence uncertainty from jet $ p_{\mathrm{T}} $ resolution.

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Figure 8:
Summary of the most recent measurements from the ATLAS and CMS Collaborations using data collected at $ \sqrt{s}= $ 5.02 TeV. In the plot also several theoretical predictions are shown: the current prediction [63] (calculated with the PDF4LHC21 set) and other previous predictions using different PDF sets [64,65,66].
Tables

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Table 1:
Summary of MC samples used to model the signal and background processes. The last column corresponds to the pQCD and EW order of approximation used to normalize the distributions provided by the generators. The predictions for $ \mathrm{t} \overline{\mathrm{t}} $ and $ t $ channel and $ \mathrm{t}\mathrm{W} $ single top quark production are calculated with the PDF4LHC prescription [35]. Approximate NNLO refers to NLO calculation matched with PS resummation.

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Table 2:
Summary of the variables used for the training of the MVA classifier in the 3j1b categories. The variables are ordered according to their discriminating power.
Summary
A measurement of the top quark pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV is performed for events with one electron or one muon and multiple jets using data collected by the CMS experiment in 2017 in conditions of low number of additional interactions per bunch crossing, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 302 pb$^{-1}$. The dominant background sources in the analysis are W+jets and tW processes. In addition, the contribution from quantum chromodynamics multijet events is estimated from data. The cross section is measured using a maximum likelihood fit to eight event categories defined in terms of the number of jets, b-tagged jets and lepton flavour. The cross section is found to be 62.5 $ \pm $ 1.6 (stat) $ \,^{+2.6}_{-2.5} $ (syst) $ \pm $ 1.2 (lumi) pb. This measurement is combined with the result obtained in the dilepton channel, based on the same data set, resulting in a value of 62.3 $ \pm $ 1.5 (stat) $ \pm $ 2.4 (syst) $ \pm $ 1.2 (lumi) pb. In both cases, the dominant uncertainties are those associated with the integrated luminosity and with the b tagging scale factors for heavy flavours. These values are consistent within two standard deviations with the standard model prediction and of previous measurements from CMS and ATLAS.
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Compact Muon Solenoid
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