CMS-PAS-FTR-18-017

CMS-PAS-FTR-18-017
Projection of the Run 2 MSSM $\text{H} \to \tau\tau$ limits for the High-Luminosity LHC
CMS Collaboration
December 2018

Abstract: A search for heavy Higgs bosons decaying to $\tau$ leptons was previously performed using data collected during Run 2 of the LHC, based on a data set of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}= $ 13 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. A projection of these results to a High-Luminosity LHC data set of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ is described. For neutral Higgs boson masses above 1 TeV, an improvement by about one order of magnitude is expected in the 95% confidence level upper limits on the cross section. For the benchmark scenario $m_{\text{h}}^{\text{mod+}}$ of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model, the expected lower limit on the mass of a heavy Higgs boson is extended from 1.25 to 2 TeV for $\tan \beta = $ 36.
Links: CDS record (PDF) ; inSPIRE record ; CADI line (restricted) ;

Figures	Summary	References	CMS Publications

Figures
png pdf	Figure 1: Projection of expected model independent 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for ggH and bbH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10].
png pdf	Figure 1-a: Projection of expected model independent 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for ggH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10].
png pdf	Figure 1-b: Projection of expected model independent 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for bbH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10].
png pdf	Figure 2: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for ggH and bbH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, comparing different scenarios for systematic uncertainties for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$.
png pdf	Figure 2-a: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for ggH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, comparing different scenarios for systematic uncertainties for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$.
png pdf	Figure 2-b: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for bbH production with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, comparing different scenarios for systematic uncertainties for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$.
png pdf	Figure 3: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for a simultaneous fit to the ggH and bbH production cross sections with subsequent ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ and with YR18 systematic uncertainties.
png pdf	Figure 3-a: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for a simultaneous fit to the gg$\phi$ and bb$\phi$ ($m_{\phi} = $ 25 GeV) production cross sections with subsequent ${\phi \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ and with YR18 systematic uncertainties.
png pdf	Figure 3-b: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for a simultaneous fit to the gg$\phi$ and bb$\phi$ ($m_{\phi} = $ 400 GeV) production cross sections with subsequent ${\phi \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ and with YR18 systematic uncertainties.
png pdf	Figure 3-c: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for a simultaneous fit to the gg$\phi$ and bb$\phi$ ($m_{\phi} = $ 700 GeV) production cross sections with subsequent ${\phi \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ and with YR18 systematic uncertainties.
png pdf	Figure 3-d: Projection of expected model-independent limits based on 2016 CMS data [10] for a simultaneous fit to the gg$\phi$ and bb$\phi$ ($m_{\phi} = $ 3200 GeV) production cross sections with subsequent ${\phi \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ decays, for an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ and with YR18 systematic uncertainties.
png pdf	Figure 4: Projection of expected MSSM ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 data [10] for different benchmark scenarios, with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10]; for the tau-phobic scenario, it is a new interpretation of the information given in this reference.
png pdf	Figure 4-a: Projection of expected MSSM ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 data [10] for the $m_{\mathrm{h}}^{\text{mod+}}$ scenario with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10].
png pdf	Figure 4-b: Projection of expected MSSM ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 data [10] for the hMSSM scenario with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10].
png pdf	Figure 4-c: Projection of expected MSSM ${{\mathrm {H}} \to {\tau} {\tau}}$ 95% CL upper limits based on 2016 data [10] for the tau-phobic scenario with YR18 systematic uncertainties. The limit shown for 6000 fb$^{-1}$ is an approximation of the sensitivity with the complete HL-LHC dataset to be collected by the ATLAS and CMS experiments, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3000 fb$^{-1}$ each. The limits are compared to the CMS result using 2016 data [10]; it is a new interpretation of the information given in this reference.

Summary

The HL-LHC projections of the most recent results on searches for neutral MSSM Higgs bosons decaying to $\tau$ leptons have been shown, based on a data set of proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV collected in 2016, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. The assumed integrated luminosity for the HL-LHC is 3000 fb$^{-1}$. In terms of cross section, an order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity is expected for neutral Higgs boson masses above 1 TeV since here the current analysis is statistically limited by the available integrated luminosity. For lower masses, an improvement of approximately a factor of five is expected for realistic assumptions on the evolution of the systematic uncertainties. For the MSSM benchmarks, the sensitivity will reach up to Higgs boson masses of 2 TeV for values of $\tan \beta$ of 36, 26, and 28 for the ${m_{\mathrm{h}}^{\text{mod+}}} $, the hMSSM, and the tau-phobic scenarios, respectively.

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