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| CMS-PAS-FTR-16-002 | ||
| Projected performance of Higgs analyses at the HL-LHC for ECFA 2016 | ||
| CMS Collaboration | ||
| May 2017 | ||
| Abstract: Projections of 13 TeV Higgs boson analyses to the High-Luminosity LHC conditions, with an integrated luminosity of up to 3000 fb$^{-1}$, are presented. The studies are performed under two scenarios, considering the systematic uncertainties in the present and in the High-Luminosity LHC conditions. The performance of $\mathrm{H}\rightarrow \mathrm{Z}\mathrm{Z}$, $\mathrm{H} \rightarrow \gamma\gamma$, $\mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}$ and beyond the standard model $\mathrm{H}\rightarrow \tau\tau$, and $\mathrm{H} \rightarrow \textrm{invisible}$ are shown. | ||
| Links: CDS record (PDF) ; inSPIRE record ; CADI line (restricted) ; | ||
| Figures | |
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Figure 1:
Projected symmetrized uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ signal strength relative to the standard model, inclusively and per production mode. Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ (a) and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ (b), under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Figure 1-a:
Projected symmetrized uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ signal strength relative to the standard model, inclusively and per production mode. Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Figure 1-b:
Projected symmetrized uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ signal strength relative to the standard model, inclusively and per production mode. Projections are given for 3000 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Figure 2:
Projected relative uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ fiducial cross section. Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Figure 3:
(a) Lineshape for $\mathrm{ H } \rightarrow \gamma \gamma $ signal in each of the four considered scenarios. Since this is a combination over several analysis categories, the individual category contributions are weighted according to the signal to background ratio in order to be representative of their contribution to the final result. (b) Projected uncertainty in the fiducial cross section measurement for 3000 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity for each of the four scenarios. The inset on the right shows the total and statistical uncertainty relative to the scenario maintaining 2016 performance. |
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Figure 3-a:
Lineshape for $\mathrm{ H } \rightarrow \gamma \gamma $ signal in each of the four considered scenarios. Since this is a combination over several analysis categories, the individual category contributions are weighted according to the signal to background ratio in order to be representative of their contribution to the final result. |
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Figure 3-b:
Projected uncertainty in the fiducial cross section measurement for 3000 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity for each of the four scenarios. The inset on the right shows the total and statistical uncertainty relative to the scenario maintaining 2016 performance. |
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Figure 4:
The projected 68% CL uncertainties in the Higgs boson signal strength for different production modes at 300 fb$^{-1}$ (a) and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ (b), with S1(+) in green and S2(+) in red. |
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Figure 4-a:
The projected 68% CL uncertainties in the Higgs boson signal strength for different production modes at 300 fb$^{-1}$, with S1(+) in green and S2(+) in red. |
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Figure 4-b:
The projected 68% CL uncertainties in the Higgs boson signal strength for different production modes at 3000 fb$^{-1}$, with S1(+) in green and S2(+) in red. |
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Figure 5:
Projections for the differential fiducial cross section measurement of the Higgs boson transverse momentum at 300 fb$^{-1}$ (a) and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ (b). The theoretical uncertainty in the differential gluon fusion cross section, which does not affect the measurement, is taken at NLO and shown in magenta. The statistical uncertainty of the measurement ranges from 10 to 29% (4 to 9%) for 300 (3000) fb$^{-1}$. The last bin represents the integrated cross section for $ {p_{\mathrm {T}}} (\mathrm{ H } ) > $ 200 GeV and is scaled by 50 for presentation. |
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Figure 5-a:
Projections for the differential fiducial cross section measurement of the Higgs boson transverse momentum at 300 fb$^{-1}$. The theoretical uncertainty in the differential gluon fusion cross section, which does not affect the measurement, is taken at NLO and shown in magenta. The statistical uncertainty of the measurement ranges from 10 to 29% (4 to 9%) for 300 (3000) fb$^{-1}$. The last bin represents the integrated cross section for $ {p_{\mathrm {T}}} (\mathrm{ H } ) > $ 200 GeV and is scaled by 50 for presentation. |
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Figure 5-b:
Projections for the differential fiducial cross section measurement of the Higgs boson transverse momentum at 3000 fb$^{-1}$. The theoretical uncertainty in the differential gluon fusion cross section, which does not affect the measurement, is taken at NLO and shown in magenta. The statistical uncertainty of the measurement ranges from 10 to 29% (4 to 9%) for 300 (3000) fb$^{-1}$. The last bin represents the integrated cross section for $ {p_{\mathrm {T}}} (\mathrm{ H } ) > $ 200 GeV and is scaled by 50 for presentation. |
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Figure 6:
The projected 95% CL values of $f_{ai}\times cos \left (\phi _{ai}\right )$ at 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$. Since the measurement is statistically limited, only S1 (for 300 fb$^{-1}$) and S1+ (for 3000 fb$^{-1}$) scenarios are used. |
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Figure 7:
Comparison between the projections obtained in the ECFA16 and Snowmass13 studies for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ and $\mathrm{ H } \to \mathrm{ Z } \mathrm{ Z } \to 4\ell $ projected uncertainties in signal strengths. Projections are given for 3000 fb$^{-1}$ under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Figure 8:
(a) Projection of the sensitivity to the SM $\mathrm{ gg } \to \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } $ production at 3000 fb$^{-1}$, based on 13TeV preliminary analyses performed with data collected in 2015. The uncertainty in the signal modifier $\mu = \sigma / \sigma _{\rm SM}$ is provided assuming different scenarios on the systematic uncertainties. (b) Projection of the sensitivity to the SM $ {\mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } \to \tau \tau \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } } $ production as function of the collected luminosity, based on the 13 TeV preliminary analysis [17] performed with data collected in 2015, under different assumptions on the systematic uncertainties. |
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Figure 8-a:
Projection of the sensitivity to the SM $\mathrm{ gg } \to \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } $ production at 3000 fb$^{-1}$, based on 13TeV preliminary analyses performed with data collected in 2015. The uncertainty in the signal modifier $\mu = \sigma / \sigma _{\rm SM}$ is provided assuming different scenarios on the systematic uncertainties. |
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Figure 8-b:
Projection of the sensitivity to the SM $ {\mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } \to \tau \tau \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } } $ production as function of the collected luminosity, based on the 13 TeV preliminary analysis [17] performed with data collected in 2015, under different assumptions on the systematic uncertainties. |
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Figure 9:
(a) The expected 95% upper limit on $\sigma / \sigma _{SM}$ versus background systematic uncertainty. This was determined with the asymptotic approximation of the modified frequentist approach based on the CLs criterion by assuming a 10% systematic uncertainty in the signal originating from PDF and scale uncertainty. (b) The expected relative uncertainty in signal strength as a function of the background systematic uncertainty. |
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Figure 9-a:
The expected 95% upper limit on $\sigma / \sigma _{SM}$ versus background systematic uncertainty. This was determined with the asymptotic approximation of the modified frequentist approach based on the CLs criterion by assuming a 10% systematic uncertainty in the signal originating from PDF and scale uncertainty. |
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Figure 9-b:
The expected relative uncertainty in signal strength as a function of the background systematic uncertainty. |
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Figure 10:
Projected 95% CL upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction for the production of a neutral Higgs boson in the gluon-fusion (a) and b associated (b) modes with subsequent decay to $\tau $ lepton pairs. The median expected limits of the 2015 analysis [33] are indicated by the red line and the one and two sigma region by the green and yellow bands, respectively. Median expected limit projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ under three scenarios, as described in the text. |
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Figure 10-a:
Projected 95% CL upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction for the production of a neutral Higgs boson in the gluon-fusion mode with subsequent decay to $\tau $ lepton pairs. The median expected limits of the 2015 analysis [33] are indicated by the red line and the one and two sigma region by the green and yellow bands, respectively. Median expected limit projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ under three scenarios, as described in the text. |
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Figure 10-b:
Projected 95% CL upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction for the production of a neutral Higgs boson in the b associated modes with subsequent decay to $\tau $ lepton pairs. The median expected limits of the 2015 analysis [33] are indicated by the red line and the one and two sigma region by the green and yellow bands, respectively. Median expected limit projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ under three scenarios, as described in the text. |
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Figure 11:
Projected 95% CL exclusion region in the MSSM $m_{\textrm {h}}^{\text {mod+}}$ benchmark scenario. The expected exclusion of the 2015 analysis [33] is given by the pink area and grey bands. The result compares the three neutral Higgs bosons, h, H and A, predicted in the MSSM to the single 125 GeV h in the SM. In order not to be sensitive to current differences in 125 GeV h prediction between the two, the projected limits do not include the h as part of the signal, thus the projected sensitivity is based solely on the expectation for H and A. Median expected exclusion projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ under three scenarios, as described in the text. |
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Figure 12:
Expected 95% upper limit on BR(H$\rightarrow $inv.) as a function of luminosity, for vector boson fusion production of a Higgs boson. |
| Tables | |
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Table 1:
Projected symmetrized uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ signal strength relative to the standard model, inclusively and per production mode. The inclusive signal strength is also given split in components: statistical uncertainties ("stat.''), experimental systematic uncertainties ("exp.'') and theoretical systematic uncertainties ("theo.''). Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Table 2:
Projected relative uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma $ fiducial cross section. Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Table 3:
Projected symmetrized uncertainties for the $\mathrm{ H } \to \mathrm{ Z } \mathrm{ Z } $ signal strength relative to the standard model, inclusively and per production mode. The inclusive signal strength is also given split in components: statistical uncertainties ("stat.''), experimental systematic uncertainties ("exp.'') and theoretical systematic uncertainties ("theo.''). Projections are given for 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$, under the scenarios described in the text. |
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Table 4:
The projected 95% CL values of $f_{ai}\times \cos \left (\phi _{ai}\right )$ at 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$. Since the measurement is statistically limited, only scenario 1 where the systematic uncertainties are unchanged with respect to the reference analysis is shown. The limits do not scale exactly with integrated luminosity because the interference contribution becomes more dominant at smaller values of $f_{ai}\times \cos \left (\phi _{ai}\right )$, and because the projections for 3000 fb$^{-1}$ use different lepton efficiencies and misidentification rates to account for the higher pileup at the HL-LHC as described in Section xxxxx. |
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Table 5:
Projection of the sensitivity to the SM $\mathrm{ gg } \to \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } $ production at 3000 fb$^{-1}$ expected to be collected during the HL-LHC program. The projections are based on 13 TeV analysis performed with data collected in 2015. The median expected limit, Z-value and uncertainty in the signal modifier $\mu _r = \sigma _{\mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } } / \sigma _{\rm SM \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } }$ are provided assuming S2 scenario on the systematic uncertainties and a scenario without systematic uncertainties shown to assess their impact (Stat. Only). For $ {\mathrm{ gg } \to \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } \to \gamma \gamma \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } } $ we use S2+ scenarios and we include the single Higgs contribution to the background. |
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Table 6:
Projection of the sensitivity to $ {\mathrm{ gg } \to X \to \mathrm{ H } \mathrm{ H } \to \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } \mathrm{ b } } $ production at 3000 fb$^{-1}$ expected to be collected during the HL-LHC program. The 95% CL expected limits are provided for spin-0 resonance hypothesis with different mass assumptions. |
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Table 7:
The extrapolated 95% CL upper limit on the Higgs invisible branching ratio at 300 and 3000 fb$^{-1}$ through the study of vector boson fusion production of the boson. |
| Summary |
|
The discovery of the Higgs boson opened a new era of precision measurements of the properties of the new particle, aimed to thoroughly test its consistence with the SM predictions. The present measurements of the Higgs boson couplings to fermions, bosons and of the tensor structure of the Higgs boson interaction with electroweak gauge bosons show no significant deviations with respect to the SM expectations. The HL-LHC will provide an unique environment in which to test the Higgs boson properties. This summary describes Higgs boson analyses performed on the 13 TeV 2015 and early 2016 and projected to larger data sets of 300 and 3000 fb$^{-1}$. The projections are performed under different scenarios considering the systematic uncertainties in the present and in the HL-LHC conditions. The performance of $\mathrm{ H } \to \mathrm{ Z }\mathrm{ Z }$, $\mathrm{ H } \to \gamma\gamma$, $\mathrm{ H }\mathrm{ H }$ and BSM $\mathrm{ H } \to \tau\tau$, and $\mathrm{ H } \to \mathrm{inv.}$ are shown. Further improvements of the sensitivity are expected when results based on larger data sets and using more sophisticated analysis techniques will be used for the projections. |
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